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February 26th, 2012 at 10:11 pm

2012 Academy Award Predictions

Today is Sunday, February 26, 2012. At 7:00 this evening, the 84th Academy Awards will finally be presented. As of today, I have reviewed all 9 of the films nominated for Best Picture. Based on my analysis of these films, and others that I have seen that I have not reviewed yet, as well as the general chatter online concerning the ceremony, I am going to try to predict the outcome of the major awards. I will exclude a few categories where I don’t feel that I could make the best judgment, since I haven’t seen most or all of the films, including the Animated Feature Film, Foreign Language Film, Documentary, or Short Film categories.

 

Best Picture

Nominees: Midnight in Paris, Hugo, The Descendants, Moneyball, The Artist, The Help, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Tree of Life, War Horse

Predicted Winner: The Artist

I will begin with the most prestigious award of all, that of Best Picture. My prediction is that The Artist will win. The movie has received almost universal acclaim, and despite the fact that it is a silent film in the modern film era, it was so well put together that it should come out on top. However, there is a slight chance that the winner could be The Descendants, which has also garnered critical acclaim. With some great performances, and a good story, this movie probably would have won in any other year. But compared to The Artist, it slides into second place. Although I personally enjoyed The Tree of Life the best, this film is too obscure for most viewers, and as a result, would not get enough votes to win the award.

 

Best Director

Nominees: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Alexander Payne, The Descendants; Martin Scorsese, Hugo; Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris; Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Predicted Winner: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

The Artist is likely to win many awards at this year’s Academy Awards. A common pattern of the Oscars is that the Best Picture winner also wins for Best Director. As a result, Hazanavicius should get the award for his excellent job of directing a silent movie. In a close second place is Scorsese for Hugo, which is easily one of his best directed films. Yet, I feel that The Artist will still win here.

 

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Demian Bechir, A Better Life; George Clooney; The Descendants; Jean Dujardin, The Artist; Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy; Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Predicted Winner: Jean Dujardin, The Artist

One of the best features of The Artist is the acting, especially that done by Jean Dujardin as the main character George Valentin. At this year’s Academy Awards, it appears that the award is going to come down to 3 main actors, in order from most likely to least likely: Jean Dujardin as George Valentin, George Clooney as Matt King, and Brad Pitt as Billy Beane. Although Clooney and Pitt each gave one of their career-best performances in their roles, they are not likely to succeed Dujardin. Both Clooney and Dujardin won Golden Globes for their roles, yet Dujardin also won the Screen Actors Guild award, which is usually a good predictor for winner of the Oscars.

 

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees: Glen Close, Albert Nobbs; Viola Davis, The Help; Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady; Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Predicted Winner: Viola Davis, The Help

There is almost no doubt that Viola Davis is going to win for her role as Aibileen Clark, the maid in The Help. Her performance, along with the rest of the cast, is possibly the movie’s greatest attribute. The only other possibility that I see here is Meryl Streep, who is often considered one of the greatest living actresses. However, her film The Iron Lady was not nominated for as many awards as The Help. Although Meryl Streep has had years of nominations behind her, while Viola Davis only has two, I think it is time for the newcomer to win.

 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn; Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Nick Nolte, Warrior; Christopher Plummer, Beginners; Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Predicted Winner: Christoper Plummer, Beginners

The nominees this year are unusual. Two of them are veteran actors over 80 years old- Christopher Plummer and Max von Sydow; two are well-received actors with a long career, but no wins- Nick Nolte and Kenneth Branagh; and one of them is a young actor who has just made the transition to dramatic roles- Jonah Hill. However, I think that it really comes down to either Plummer or Sydow. Each of them has a distinguished career, Plummer perhaps being most famous as Captain von Trapp in The Sound of Music; and Sydow, who has been in such films as The Seventh Seal and the Exorcist. But, possibly due to the mixed reviews of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, or because Plummer’s performance is more worthy overall, I believe that Plummer will come home with the win.

 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Berenice Bejo, The Artist; Jessica Chastain, The Help; Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Octavia Spencer, The Help

 

 

Predicted Winner: Octavia Spencer, The Help

Just as in the Best Actress category, I believe that a performance in The Help will earn the Oscar. Although The Artist will win more awards overall, I believe that Spencer’s performance easily outshines Bejos. Chastain performed well in her role in The Help, but I don’t believe that this is her year yet. The young actress has a bright future ahead of her, and we will most likely see more from her down the road. McCarthy, although very entertaining in Bridesmaids, is not likely to win, since her role is more comedic, and is made less impressive when seeing the other nominees. McTeer is not likely to win based on the negative reviews of Albert Nobbs alone, although her performance is ranked high. But Spencer performed admirably in her role, and so is my predicted winner.

 

Best Writing- Original Screenplay

Nominees: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids; J.C. Chandor, Margin Call; Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris; Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

Predicted Winner: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris consists of a very interesting concept, that of a man going back in time to Paris in the 1920’s where he meets many famous writers and artists of that time. Hazanavicius’s story, although also clever, is not as original as Allen’s. Known for writing wonderful screenplays in a career spanning 6 decades, Woody Allen’s film appears to be a favorite for winning this award.

 

Best Writing- Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Descendants; John Logan, Hugo; George Clooney and Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March; Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, Moneyball; Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Predicted Winner: Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Descendants

The Descendants is an excellent film, worthy of at least one win from all of its nominations. It is likely that it will win in this category. Although Hugo or even Moneyball could possibly win as well, I believe that the story for The Descendants is stronger on its own, and for this reason will succeed.

 

Best Original Score

Nominees: John Williams, The Adventures of Tintin; Ludovic Bource, The Artist; Howard Shore, Hugo; Alberto Iglesias, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy; John Williams, War Horse

Predicted Winner: Ludovic Bource, The Artist

The Artist is a silent film. As such, it needs a compelling soundtrack in order to help drive the story. The soundtrack of The Artist spells perfection. It sounds like anything you would hear in a film from the 1920s. I do not think any of the other nominees could even come close.

 

Best Original Song

Nominees: Bret McKenzie, “Man or Muppet” from The Muppets; Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown, lyrics by Siedah Garrett, “Real in Rio” from RIO

Predicted Winner: Bret McKenzie, “Man or Muppet” from The Muppets

There is not much to choose from in this category. However, I feel that the songs from The Muppets were very entertaining. I am surprised that “Life’s a Happy Song” was not nominated as well, as it is probably even more fun than “Man or Muppet.” But without it on the list, “Man or Muppet” is the clear winner.

 

Best Sound Editing

Nominees: Lou Bender and Victor Ray Ennis, Drive; Ren Klyce, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Phillip Stockton and Eugene Gearty, Hugo; Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl, Transformers: Dark of the Moon; Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom, War Horse

Predicted Winner: Phillip Stockton and Eugene Gearty, Hugo

It seems likely that Hugo is going to win a lot of awards in the technical categories, which includes sound editing. The sheer magnitude of sound in this film is enough to bring in the award. Although War Horse is also a good candidate, it most likely will not win here.

 

Best Sound Mixing

Nominees: David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Tom Fleischman and John Midgley, Hugo; Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco and Ed Novick, Moneyball; Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin, Transformers: Dark of the Moon; Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson, War Horse

Predicted Winner: Tom Fleischman and John Midgley, Hugo

Just as in the previous category, Hugo is likely to take home this award for Best Sound Mixing. War Horse also compares, especially when thinking of the battle scenes throughout the film, but I don’t believe that it will win.

 

Best Art Direction

Nominees: Laurence Bennett (Production Design), Robert Gould (Set Decoration), The Artist; Stuart Craig (Production Design); Stephenie McMillan (Set Decoration), Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2; Dante Ferretti (Production Design); Francesca Lo Schiavo (Set Decoration), Hugo; Anne Seibel (Production Design); Hélène Dubreuil (Set Decoration), Midnight in Paris; Rick Carter (Production Design); Lee Sandales (Set Decoration), Hugo

Predicted Winner: Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo, Hugo

This category is a tough one. I believe it is evenly split between Hugo and The Artist. As far as the set design and production of both films is concerned, each of them are brilliant in their own way. But I believe Hugo will win in this category.

 

Best Cinematography

Nominees: Guillaume Schiffman, The Artist; Jeff Cronenweth, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Robert Richardson, Hugo; Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life; Janusz Kaminski, War Horse

Predicted Winner: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life

Like the category above, this is also a tough choice. It seems split between The Tree of Life or Hugo. Though Hugo is likely to pick up more awards, The Tree of Life surpasses it in this category. Even if people did not care for the film as a whole, the cinematography alone is incredible, and as a result it should win this award.

 

Best Makeup

Nominees: Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle, Albert Nobbs; Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2; Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland, The Iron Lady

Predicted Winner: Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland, The Iron Lady

Though I am not as familiar with these films as with the others, I believe that The Iron Lady will win this award. The film itself is not rated as high with critics as Harry Potter, but I believe it is more likely to win, perhaps because of the look of Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher.

 

Best Costume Design

Nominees: Lisy Christl, Anonymous; Mark Bridges, The Artist; Sandy Powell, Hugo; Michael O’Connor, Jane Eyre; Arianne Phillips, W.E.

Predicted Winner: Mark Bridges, The Artist

In making the actors and actresses appear that they came directly from the 1920s, Bridges did an excellent job in The Artist. Another possibility is Hugo, or  Jane Eyre, but in the end I believe that The Artist will win yet again.

 

Best Film Editing

Nominees: Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Kevin Tent, The Descendants; Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Thelma Schoonmaker, Hugo; Christopher Tellefsen, Moneyball

Predicted Winner: Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

A silent film needs a lot of work in order to make the scenes flow together and to express emotion within the characters, since it does not have the benefit of sound. This is where editing comes in. Because this is also most likely going to win Best Picture, it’s almost a sure thing that The Artist will take the award.

 

Best Visual Effects

Nominees: Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2; Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossmann and Alex Henning, Hugo; Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg, Real Steel; Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett, Rise of the Planet of the Apes; Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier, Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Predicted Winner: Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett, Rise of the Planet of the Apes

This category most likely will come down to two possibilities: Rise of the Planet of the Apes or Harry Potter. Harry Potter may be a bigger and more epic film, but Planet of the Apes was overall more impressive. The apes seem so lifelike, and for this reasons it deserves the award.

 

And that concludes my predictions for the 2012 Academy Awards. I hope to at least get the major categories correct, but as usual, there are always some surprises that come with the Oscars. For the next few weeks, I will continue to review nominated films, and in addition, will try to do some older ones as well. Remember to tune in at 7:00 tonight for the 84th Annual Academy Awards!

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  • Amy
    2:08 am on February 28th, 2012 1

    I also chose The Artist as hands-down the best film. It was so well acted and entertaining. I was able to see 6/9 of the nominations. My second choice would have been the delightful Midnight in Paris. I found it enchanting while still being “so Woody Allen.” Jean DuJardin was clearly the front runner…his acting was outstanding.

  • Joan
    5:32 pm on March 4th, 2012 2

    In my opinion, the Iron Lady was the best film I’ve seen in a long time. Meryl Streep gave another outstanding performance and deserved the best actress award.

 

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