In just a few hours, the 86th Academy Awards will premiere. So, as usual, I am posting my predictions for the major awards. I have excluded the Short Film Live Action, the Short Film Animated, the Documentary Short Subject, and the Foreign Language Film, since I have not seen or really know about any of the films in those categories. Remember, these are my predictions for the winners in each category, not necessarily what I personally feel should win. So let’s get started.

Best Picture

Nominees: “American Hustle,” “Captain Phillips,” “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Gravity,” “Her,” “Nebraska,” “Philomena,” “12 Years a Slave,” and “The Wolf of Wall Street.”

Predicted Winner: “12 Years a Slave”

An interesting statistic that I heard recently was that 6 of the 9 nominated films for Best Picture are based on true events. Only “Gravity,” “Nebraska,” and “Her” are original stories. It seems that the Academy has a definite preference for this type of film, and, specifically, for those that touch on significant historical events. For that reason, “12 Years A Slave,” which deals with slavery in the South, is my predicted winner. There are two other slight possibilities here, that of “American Hustle,” which won the Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical, and “Gravity,” which has already won numerous other awards. “American Hustle” just doesn’t have the same emotional weight as “12 Years,” though. And “Gravity,” being science fiction, doesn’t have a huge chance, since that genre tends to be overlooked by the Academy. So I’m sticking with “12 Years a Slave.”

Best Director

Nominees: David O. Russell, “American Hustle,” Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity,” Alexander Payne, “Nebraska,” Steve McQueen, “12 Years a Slave,” Martin Scorsese, “The Wolf of Wall Street”

Predicted Winner: Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”

This category tends to go to the same film that wins Best Picture, since it is the director that makes the film great. So, in that case, it would go to Steve McQueen. This year, though, Alfonso Cuarón has been picking up all of the directing awards for his work on “Gravity,” including at the Golden Globes, the Director’s Guild Awards, and the BAFTA’s. The reason for this is because of how perfectly he directed “Gravity.” Under any other hands, the relatively simple survival story of an astronaut in space could have been a disaster. But Cuarón makes the film one of the most thrilling adventures of the year. So, he is my predicted winner for Best Director.

Best Actor

Nominees: Christian Bale, “American Hustle,” Bruce Dern, “Nebraska,” Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street,” Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave,” Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”

Predicted Winner: Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”

Best Actor is another category that was tough to place, at least at first. Chiwetel Ejiofor stars in the predicted Best Picture winner, which gives him an extra boost. Yet, Bruce Dern is a veteran actor, and the Academy likes to award older nominees, almost as if commending them for all of their work through the years. DiCaprio is also long overdue for an Oscar, having been nominated a previous four times without winning. McConaughey, though, gave the performance that is perhaps the most transformative. Portraying a man who has been diagnosed with AIDs, McConaughey lost almost 50 pounds for the role, and he is almost unrecognizable. Think Tom Hanks from “Philadelphia.” And considering how the Academy likes to award performances with this amount of devotion, I’m thinking that McConaughey has an edge over the others, despite how strong all of the nominees are (except for Christian Bale, who doesn’t really need to be here).

Best Actress

Nominees: Amy Adams, “American Hustle,” Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine,” Sandra Bullock, “Gravity,” Judi Dench, “Philomena,” Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County”

Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”

Now here, finally, is a category that is a sure thing. Cate Blanchett gave an incredibly moving performance in Woody Allen’s “Blue Jasmine,” portraying a narcissistic woman who once had everything, but is now down in the dumps. It is the type of performance that makes a movie, and if not for Cate Blanchett in the main role, the film wouldn’t be nearly as good. The other four nominees in this category gave great performances, too, but nobody is going to beat Cate.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips,” Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle,” Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave,” Jonah Hill, “The Wolf of Wall Street,” Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”

Predicted Winner: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”

Just like Matthew McConaughey from the same film, Jared Leto also gives a transformative performance in “Dallas Buyers Club.” He not only lost weight for the role, but he also dresses like a woman, applies makeup, and speaks in a believable feminine voice. It is enough to make you forget that he is also the heavy rock singer from 30 Seconds to Mars. The only other nominees that I could see winning are Michael Fassbender for “12 Years a Slave” or Barkhad Abdi for “Captain Phillips.” But, as they are both newcomers and first-time nominees, I think that it’s Leto’s turn to take home the win.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine,” Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle,” Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave,” Julie Roberts, “August: Osage County,” June Squibb, “Nebraska”

Predicted Winner: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”

Here is a category that really comes down to two people: Jennifer Lawrence for “American Hustle” and Lupita Nyong’o for “12 Years a Slave.” Both actresses have won their fair share of awards already. While Lawrence won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, Nyong’o won the Screen Actors Guild and the Critics’ Choice Award. So, it is really 50/50 at this point. But I am still going with Nyong’o. As an immediately likable newcomer, and giving a powerful performance, the Academy is going to want to show their support. And Lawrence is already so well loved that she doesn’t need another Oscar right now. Though she probably will get another one in the next couple of years.  

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, “American Hustle,” Woody Allen, “Blue Jasmine,” Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack, “Dallas Buyers Club,” Spike Jonze, “Her,” Bob Nelson, “Nebraska”

Predicted Winner: Spike Jonze, “Her”

And here is another category that might be upset by “American Hustle,” especially after they just recently won the BAFTA a couple weeks ago. But at the Golden Globes, it was “Her” that beat the competition. “American Hustle” was a cleverly written story, dealing with its own version of true events in the 1970’s. But it is nowhere near as original as “Her,” which deals with the idea of people falling in love with artificially intelligent operating systems in the future. And in a category that has “original” in the title, I believe that Spike Jonze win will for “Her.”

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, “Before Midnight,” Billy Ray, “Captain Phillips,” Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, “Philomena,” John Ridley, “12 Years a Slave,” Terence Winter, “The Wolf of Wall Street”

Predicted Winner: John Ridley, “12 Years a Slave”

The Best Picture winner also tends to win in one of the Best Screenplay categories, depending on whether it is original or based on an adapted work. And while the story of “12 Years a Slave” is not too complicated, it is because of this that it is likely to win the award. The only possible upset here may be for “Philomena,” which likely has more of a chance of winning here than in any of the other categories where it was nominated.

Best Animated Feature

Nominees: “The Croods,” “Despicable Me 2,” “Ernest & Celestine,” “Frozen,” “The Wind Rises”

Predicted Winner: “Frozen”

Here we have something very unusual for the Animated Feature category. The Disney animated production “Frozen,” is likely to win, while the Disney/Pixar film of last year, “Monsters University,” was not even nominated. And although I wish “Monsters” was at least in the running, I definitely give credit to “Frozen,” which is easily Disney’s best animated film in years, up there with other Disney classics like “Beauty and the Beast” and “The Little Mermaid.” And seeing as how it has won so many awards already, it is almost a guarantee that it will win here. Though I have yet to see “The Wind Rises,” I have also heard good things about the film, which gives it a slight chance. But I don’t think anything will beat “Frozen.”

Best Original Score

Nominees: John Williams, “The Book Thief,” Steven Price, “Gravity,” William Butler and Owen Pallett, “Her,” Alexandre Desplat, “Philomena,” Thomas Newman, “Saving Mr. Banks”

Predicted Winner: Steven Price, “Gravity”

This category is somewhat of a surprise, since the soundtrack to “12 Years a Slave” or “All is Lost” were not even nominated. If they were, it is possible that either score could have won, especially since “All is Lost” won the Golden Globe. For the remaining nominees, though, “Gravity” seems to be the likely winner. “Philomena” might come up here again, since the soundtrack is created by a composer that has been nominated many times already, but has never won. But, with the full force and power of the music in “Gravity,” it is likely that Steven Price will take home the award.

Best Original Song

Nominees: Pharrell Williams, “Happy” from “Despicable Me 2,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Loper, “Let It Go” from “Frozen,” Karen O and Spike Jonze, “The Moon Song” from “Her,” Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom”

Predicted Winner: “Let It Go” from “Frozen”

This category features many wonderful songs from their respective films, and really any of them has a chance to take the win. I would give an almost equal chance to U2’s “Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom,”especially since it’s U2, and they always win. But “Frozen” probably has a slight edge, considering that the entire film is a musical. And “Let It Go” is a very catchy song.

Best Sound Editing

Nominees: Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns, “All is Lost,” Oliver Tarney, “Captain Phillips,” Glenn Freemantle, “Gravity,” Brent Burge and Chris Ward, “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug,” Wylie Stateman,”Lone Survivor”

Predicted Winner: Glenn Freemantle, “Gravity”

And here we come to the first of the technical categories, where “Gravity” is likely to sweep the competition. “Gravity” is a film that focuses on the senses, especially that of sight and sound. I would give some slight credit to “Captain Phillips,” but it is really almost a guarantee that “Gravity” will win.

Best Sound Mixing

Nominees: Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro, “Captain Phillips,” Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro, “Gravity,” Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson, “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug,” Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland, “Inside Llewyn Davis,” Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow, “Lone Survivor”

Predicted Winner: Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro, “Gravity”

Another win for “Gravity.” Just listen to the sound in the last scene of the film, when Sandra Bullock plummets to Earth while inside a collapsing space module. And you’ll immediately be convinced that it should win.

Best Production Design

Nominees: Judy Becker and Heather Loeffler, “American Hustle,” Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard, “Gravity,” Catherine Martin and Beverly Dunn, “The Great Gatsby,” K.K. Barett and Gene Serdena, “Her,” Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker, “12 Years a Slave”

Predicted Winner: Catherine Martin and Beverly Dunn, “The Great Gatsby”

“The Great Gatsby” might not have gotten some of the acclaim that was expected of it, with some people criticizing the film for focusing too much on elaborate sets than on characterization or story. But it is just that aspect that makes “Gatsby” a favorite within this category. Some may say that “Gravity” has a chance as well, but I have a feeling that the Academy will award that film more for the visual and sound aspects rather than for the production sets.

Best Cinematography

Nominees: Philippe Le Sourd, “The Grandmaster,” Emmanuel Lubezki, “Gravity,” Bruno Delbonnel, “Inside Llewyn Davis,” Phedon Papamichael, “Nebraska,” Roger A. Deakins, “Prisoners”

Predicted Winner: Emmanuel Lubezki, “Gravity”

The award for Cinematography usually goes to the technically favorite film. It happened last year for “Life of Pi,” and the year before for “Hugo.” So, once again, it is “Gravity” for the win.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews, “Dallas Buyers Club,” Stephen Prouty, “Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa,” Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny, “The Lone Ranger”

Predicted Winner: Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews, “Dallas Buyers Club”

The makeup and hairstyling for Jared Leto’s character alone, effectively transforming him into a woman, is enough to make this award justified. There is some talk of “Bad Grandpa” having a chance, but I have a hard time thinking that the Academy will take that film seriously. The real surprise is that “American Hustle” was not here. But with that film absent, I have a feeling that “Dallas Buyers Club” will take the award instead.

Best Costume Design

Nominees: Michael Wilkinson, “American Hustle,” William Chang Suk Ping, “The Grandmaster,” Catherine Martin, “The Great Gatsby,” Michael O’Connor, “The Invisible Woman,” Patricia Norris, “12 Years a Slave”

Predicted Winner: Michael Wilkinson, “American Hustle”

By my predictions, this is “American Hustle’s” best chance at winning an award. The outfits and hairdos worn by the characters in this film immediately transport you to the 1970’s, and it is for this reason that it is surprisingly not nominated in the Hairstyling category as well. But here is finally their chance.

Best Film Editing

Nominees: Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten, “American Hustle,” Christopher Rouse, “Captain Phillips,” John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa, “Dallas Buyers Club,” Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger, “Gravity,” Joe Walker, “12 Years a Slave”

Predicted Winner: Christopher Rouse, “Captain Phillips”

I was originally going to go with “Gravity” once again on this one, but at this point it almost seems like overkill. And the very highly acclaimed “Captain Phillips” would then end up with nothing at the end of the night. And it was the editing of that film that made it so tense. So I’m going to go out on a limb and pick “Captain Phillips” here.

Best Visual Effects

Nominees: Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk and Neil Corbould, “Gravity,” Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds, “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug,” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick, “Iron Man 3,” Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier, “The Lone Ranger,” Roger Guyett, Patrick Tulbach, Ben Grossman and Burt Dalton, “Star Trek Into Darkness”

Predicted Winner: Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk and Neil Corbould, “Gravity”

“Gravity” will win. No need for debate.

So that concludes my predictions for the 86th Academy Awards. Be sure to tune in tonight at 8:30 to see how I do! (Or just to watch the Oscars)