Well, it’s here again! The 90th Academy Awards are premiering tonight, and, as usual, I will be posting my annual predictions here. It should be an interesting night, especially with the #metoo movement still so prominent, in addition to all the landmark films that have come out within the past year.

Standard disclaimer: the below predicted winners aren’t necessarily who I would like to win, but which films I feel have the best chance of doing so. At any rate, let’s get started!

Best Picture

Nominees:

“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Predicted Winner: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

This category, as it has been in the past two or three years, is far from a sure thing. The potential winner is really between two major films, with an outsider’s chance for a third. They are “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” with a chance of an upset by “Get Out.” Ultimately, though, I think it’s helpful to look at prior award shows to see who will win here. “Three Billboards” has already won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, the SAG for Ensemble Cast, the Satellite Award, and multiple others. I believe the Oscars will follow suit.

Then again, I’ve gotten this category wrong the past couple years, so I suppose you’ll have to take my guess with a grain of salt.

Best Director

Nominees:

Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”
Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Phantom Thread”
Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”

Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”

First of all, I’d like to point out that this is a fantastic lineup for directing. It includes two first time directors that also happen to be a POC and a woman, Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig. In addition, it’s a notable surprise seeing Anderson getting in there for the wonderfully weird “Phantom Thread.” Nolan’s nod is also well deserved for the superbly crafted “Dunkirk.” He’d be my personal pick here, but alas it is not up to me.

Ultimately, this category is all but guaranteed for del Toro. “The Shape of Water” might not be his very best film (“Pan’s Labyrinth” and “The Devil’s Backbone” easily win out there), but it’s still very distinctively his own brand of monster romanticism. Del Toro has been cleaning up across the board in other award shows, so I expect him to win here as well.

Best Actor

Nominees:

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Predicted Winner: Gary Oldman

If there’s one sure thing of this evening, it’s this: Gary Oldman will win his first Oscar. After surprisingly only been nominated once before, for “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,” it’s as the prosthetic-enhanced William Churchill that he will win. Though this does seem somewhat like a career win for Oldman as opposed to simply an all-out deserving Oscar, it’s still the Academy’s top choice. And hey – he’s not bad in “Darkest Hour” by any means.

Best Actress

Nominees:

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Predicted Winner: Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

In a stacked list that of course includes Meryl Streep yet again (yawn), this is still almost as much of a sure thing as the prior award. Love or hate the film itself, it’s hard to argue that McDormand isn’t anything but fantastic in the role. Award associations seem to think so, as McDormand already has nearly every other major award leading up to the Oscars. Expect her to win again tonight, and to add another shiny statue to put on her mantle next to 1996’s “Fargo” (a whopping 21 years ago!).

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Predicted Winner: Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

If you would’ve asked me who I thought would win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars a year ago, I never would have said Sam Rockwell. It’s not that he isn’t deserving, but Rockwell is such a little-known actor despite his relatively large body of work. It’s hard to argue with greatness, though, and Rockwell’s somehow sympathetic performance of a racist manchild is a force to be reckoned with. Hopefully, in the future, he will get more equally renowned roles to play around with.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Predicted Winner: Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”

This category is mostly a sure thing for Janney’s fierce-willed portrayal of LaVona Fay Golden, Tony Harding’s mother. But the other role with a slight chance is for another similarly ruthless (though a bit less cartoonish) mother, the wonderful Laurie Metcalf in “Lady Bird.” But Janney ultimately has the lead, and she’ll soon have an Oscar to put on her mantle next to her many Emmys.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:

Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani, “The Big Sick”
Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor, “The Shape of Water,”
Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Predicted Winner: Jordan Peele, “Get Out”

Original Screenplay tends to go to, you guessed it, the most original work of the bunch. For that, the pick has to be Jordan Peele for “Get Out.” Though I’m admittedly not as crazy about the film as some people, it’s hard to argue that it works not only as a fun twist on classic horror films, but also as an elusive allegory for race in America. McDonagh does have a slight chance at winning here for “Three Billboards” but I ultimately think the Academy will go with “Get Out.”

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:

James Ivory, “Call Me by Your Name”
Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, “The Disaster Artist”
Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green, “Logan”
Aaron Sorkin, “Molly’s Game”
Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, “Mudbound”

Predicted Winner:  James Ivory, “Call Me by Your Name”

I was happy to see that my favorite film from last year, “Logan,” was at least nominated in the Adapted Screenplay category. I don’t think it has a chance of winning, as that is all but sure for “Call Me by Your Name,” but it’s a worthy mention all the same. Ivory’s adaptation of André Aciman’s 2007 novel is likely the only category where the film will win, but it’s an admirable win all the same.

Best Animated Feature

Nominees:

“The Boss Baby”
“The Breadwinner”
“Coco”
“Ferdinand”
“Loving Vincent”

Predicted Winner: “Coco”

Can anyone beat Disney/Pixar in this category? Disney Studios or Pixar have only missed this category once in the last ten years, in 2011, and in the current category they are even against a film that consists of 65,000 hand-painted frames (“Loving Vincent”)! It’s hard to argue with brilliance, though. “Coco” is Pixar at their finest, and it is a surety that it will win the studio yet another shiny gold statue.

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees:

“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul (Hungary)
“The Square” (Sweden)

Predicted Winner: “A Fantastic Woman”

I have only seen “The Square” of this bunch, but “A Fantastic Woman” seems set for the win here, based first on the glowing reception the film has received. “The Square” could sweep in, but “A Fantastic Woman” is also more timely given its focus on a transgender woman. This will likely boost it ahead.

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees:

“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail”
“Faces Places”
“Icarus”
“Last Men in Aleppo”
“Strong Island”

Predicted Winner: “Faces Places”

Another category I am slacking on, though “Faces Places” seems to be the favorite here. “Icarus” does have a slight chance given its focus on Russian doping in sports, but “Faces Places” seems to have more momentum behind it. I’ll someday get around to watching these films, I swear!

Best Cinematography

Nominees:

Roger Deakins, “Blade Runner 2049”
Bruno Delbonnel, “Darkest Hour,”
Hoyte van Hoytema, “Dunkirk”
Rachel Morrison, “Mudbound”
Dan Laustsen, “The Shape of Water”

Predicted Winner: Roger Deakins, “Blade Runner 2049”

This is it: the moment where Deakins could finally win his first Oscar! After 13 nominations with no wins, it seems he might finally come out on top. I have a slight suspicion that Hoytema could win for “Dunkirk,” given the incredible visual magnitude of that film, but I think Deakins will ultimately go home with the Oscar. I mean, just look at that yellow glowiness!

Best Film Editing

Nominees:

“Baby Driver”
“Dunkirk”
“I, Tonya”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Predicted Winner: “Dunkirk”

Expect this to be just one of many technical wins for “Dunkirk.” The film’s use of sound and movement to create tension is second to none, and editing plays into that quite a bit. The precise timing of the editing in “Baby Driver” might play a slight factor, but I don’t think “Dunkirk” has much of a chance at losing.

Best Production Design

Nominees:

“Beauty and the Beast”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”

Predicted Winner: “The Shape of Water”

As I mentioned earlier, I’m not as crazy enthusiastic about “The Shape of Water” as some are, but it’s still a more than worthy nominee and eventual winner for its steampunk Cold War setting, brought to life through some lavish production sets. I don’t see much of a chance of another film swooping in here ahead of it.

Best Costume Design

Nominees:

“Beauty and the Beast”
“Darkest Hour”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Shape of Water”
“Victoria and Abdul”

Predicted Winner: “Phantom Thread”

Unfortunately the only category where “Phantom Thread” has much of a chance at winning, it’s still more than deserving here. It shouldn’t be a surprise that a film which is almost exclusively focused on the fashion industry would have some impressive outfits. Reynolds Woodcock would likely agree with the win.

Best Original Score

Nominees:

Hans Zimmer, “Dunkirk”
Jonny Greenwood, “Phantom Thread,”
Alexandre Desplat, “The Shape of Water”
John Williams, “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
Carter Burwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Predicted Winner: Alexandre Desplat, “The Shape of Water”

Another worthy nomination and win for “The Shape of Water” (I do seem to enjoy praising this film for not being the hugest fan of it). Desplat’s ethereal and haunting score is easily one of the highlights, though, keeping the film moving along even during some of its more sluggish sequences. It’s another one to add to the ever-growing list of wins for the film.

Best Original Song

Nominees: 

“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

Predicted Winner: “Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez

“Remember Me,” the wonderfully nostalgic song from “Coco,” is sure to win here. Just listening to it makes me tear up a bit (as I may or may not have done during the film itself). At any rate, the Academy loves a good Disney tune, so it’s “Remember Me” for the gold.

Best Visual Effects

Nominees:

“Blade Runner 2049”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2”
“Kong: Skull Island”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“War for the Planet of the Apes”

Predicted Winner:  “War for the Planet of the Apes”

There’s a chance that this category could go to the same winner as Cinematography, “Blade Runner 2049,” but I ultimately think that the Academy prefers down-to-earth visuals as opposed to out-there sci-fi, seen last year with the win for “The Jungle Book.” With the incredible visual effects needed to animate realistic-looking chimps, I think “War for the Planet of the Apes” has the edge here.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Nominees:

“Darkest Hour”
“Victoria and Abdul”
“Wonder”

Predicted Winner: “Darkest Hour”

Not much of a contest here. The time and energy spent in making Gary Oldman look identical to Winston Churchill is remarkable. None of the other two categories come close.

Best Sound Mixing

Nominees:

“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Predicted Winner: “Dunkirk”

As I mentioned earlier, it’s really the sound design of “Dunkirk” that makes it work as well as it does. Seeing it last year was one of the more intense movie theater experiences I’ve had in some time. This category has some great films, but I don’t think “Dunkirk” will lose.

Best Sound Editing

Nominees:

“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Predicted Winner: “Dunkirk”

With identical nominees to the previous category, I also see “Dunkirk” as the winner here. Try not to feel uncomfortably claustrophobic during the boat sinking scene in the film; the use of sound is just too good. “Dunkirk” for the win.

Best Live Action Short Film

Nominees:

“DeKalb Elementary”
“The Eleven O’Clock”
“My Nephew Emmett”
“The Silent Child”
“Watu Wote/All of Us”

Predicted Winner: “DeKalb Elementary”

I’m not usually very good at seeing the short films, so in this category and the ones that follow I will be picking purely based on hype alone. Granted, that’s how these should all be picked, but I like to make my own judgments as well. “DeKalb Elementary” seems to be the favorite here.

Best Animated Short Film

Nominees:

“Dear Basketball”
“Garden Party”
“Lou”
“Negative Space”
“Revolting Rhymes”

Predicted Winner: “Dear Basketball”

It was a shocker when this category was announced: Kobe Bryant is nominated for an Oscar! But “Dear Basketball,” which is essentially Bryant’s ode to the game, seems to also be heading in the direction of a win. And it’s Bryant for the steal!

Best Documentary – Short Subject

Nominees:

“Edith+Eddie”
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405”
“Heroin(e)”
“Knife Skills”
“Traffic Stop”

Predicted Winner: “Heroin(e)”

With its timely focus on opioid addiction, “Heroin(e)” seems to be a strong contender amongst the Documentary – Short Subject nominees. “Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405” does have some momentum behind it, though, so we’ll see what happens.

So that about sums up my predictions for the 90th Academy Awards. Regardless of how many I end up getting right, it’s still bound to be a fun show. So tune in tonight at 8:00PM EST. And thanks for reading!