Well, here we are once again. My annual Academy Award predictions. To be honest, I struggled as to whether or not to do it again this year, as I have found myself less enthusiastic about predicting awards. At the end of the day, a lot of it is predictable, and the top winners are rarely the ones that truly deserve it. I’m sure it feels good when a lesser-known movie gets recognition, but most of the time it just feels political.

At any rate, I eventually convinced myself to do it for one more year. I hope to at least get some enjoyment out of it. So let’s start, as I have in recent years, with the top awards first and foremost.

Best Picture

Nominees:

“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Joker”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“1917”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
“Parasite”

Predicted Winner: “1917”

This year, similar to last, the Best Picture could be one of a few different candidates. The safe answer would be “1917,” although in recent weeks I have heard more enthusiasm for “Parasite,” which, in my opinion would be a much more deserving winner. It would also be a sign that perhaps things have changed in the Academy, giving recognition for a foreign movie as opposed to the consensus Hollywood favorite.

Still, I don’t think it will happen this year. “1917” has a lot of momentum going into the ceremony, including winning the Golden Globe, the Producers Guild Awards, and Mendes with the Directors Guild Awards. It’s still a toss-up, but I’m going with my gut here. Besides, “Parasite” will easily win in the Best International Film category, so the Academy might think that is recognition enough.

Best Director

Nominees:

Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”
Todd Phillips, “Joker”
Sam Mendes, “1917”
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”

Predicted Winner: Sam Mendes, “1917”

No doubt in my mind about this award. As with Best Picture, Sam Mendes has been picking up all the awards for this movie (whether he deserves it or not). Either way, it’s a much more predictable winner than Best Picture, and I don’t think the Academy is likely to pick an underdog here.

Best Actor

Nominees:

Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
Jonathan Pryce, “The Two Popes”

Predicted Winner: Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”

The first of the four major acting categories, I feel about 99% sure about this, and those to follow. Phoenix has been riding a wave of award wins for his turn as the Joker, which interestingly will be the second Oscar for the character after the posthumous win for Heath Ledger. It’s a far different portrayal here, and the movie in particular is a hit for critics and award shows. I’m largely indifferent here, but my opinion obviously doesn’t count.

Best Actress

Nominees:

Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Renee Zellweger, “Judy”

Predicted Winner: Renee Zellweger, “Judy”

In a just world, Saoirse Ronan would win an Oscar (finally) for her performance in “Little Women,” though being still young, she still has years of opportunities ahead of her. But also deserving is the eventual winner of the award, Renee Zelweger for “Judy,” whose performance is by far the best part of the movie. She transforms into the iconic screen legend, becoming almost unrecognizable, and the Academy will likely award her for that.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”
Al Pacino, “The Irishman”
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Predicted Winner: Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Another sure thing: Brad Pitt will finally win an acting award for his performance in “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” Here’s one that I have absolutely no problem with, as it is easily amongst his best performances. For a career spanning decades now, it’s nice to see him get recognition.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell”
Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”
Florence Pugh, “Little Women”
Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”

Predicted Winner: Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”

An award that is a sure thing, yet arguably is not the most deserving. I mean, we even had a better performance by Laura Dern in “Little Women,” and outside of her, that’s not even mentioning the snub of Jennifer Lopez in “Hustlers.” Either way, I’m a fan of Dern, and whether this is just recognition of a decades-long career or just because she doesn’t have a lot of serious competition, it’s a sure thing that she’ll take home the award.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:

“Knives Out,” Rian Johnson
“Marriage Story,” Noah Baumbach
“1917,” Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Quentin Tarantino
“Parasite,” Bong Joon ho, Jin Won Han

Predicted Winner: “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Quentin Tarantino

In a fair and just world, “Knives Out” would win this award, in unfortunately the only category that it was nominated in. Still, Tarantino is not a bad second choice. The Academy loves Tarantino in general, seen in his wins in this category for the movies “Pulp Fiction” and “Django Unchained.” And seeing as how this is the only category where he will probably win an award personally, I think it’s likely they’ll recognize his efforts here.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:

“The Irishman,” Steven Zaillian
“Jojo Rabbit,” Taika Waititi
“Joker,” Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
“Little Women,” Greta Gerwig
“The Two Popes,” Anthony McCarten

Predicted Winner: “Jojo Rabbit,” Taika Waititi

There was some early buzz here for Gerwig’s “Little Women,” which was my original hopeful choice, but it appears that the momentum has swung for Taika Waititi instead for “Jojo Rabbit.” It’s a wacky comedy about Nazis that I would argue doesn’t fully succeed as a self-proclaimed “anti-hate satire,” but still, the Academy will likely award Waititi for the film.

Best Animated Feature

Nominees:

“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World,” Dean DeBlois
“I Lost My Body,” Jeremy Clapin
“Klaus,” Sergio Pablos
“Missing Link,” Chris Butler
“Toy Story 4,”  Josh Cooley

Predicted Winner: “Toy Story 4,”  Josh Cooley

This is the safe choice for this category, although there notably is competition in both “Klaus” and “Missing Link.” Still, Disney, being the juggernaut it is, and also for delivering on a movie that most people didn’t even think was necessary, is the likely winner here. Looks like they’re a hard empire to topple.

Best International Feature Film

Nominees:

“Corpus Christi,” Jan Komasa
“Honeyland,” Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov
“Les Miserables,” Ladj Ly
“Pain and Glory,” Pedro Almodovar
“Parasite,” Bong Joon Ho

Predicted Winner: “Parasite,” Bong Joon Ho

Not the slightest doubt in my mind here for “Parasite,” which will win the newly worded Best International Feature Film category. Especially when you consider that the movie has a good chance at even winning Best Picture. But here, it doesn’t have much competition, even if the remaining films are also quite good. “Parasite” hit on our times more so than likely any other movie last year, though, and I think it likely that Boon Joon Ho will finally get a well-deserved award.

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees:

“American Factory,” Julia Rieichert, Steven Bognar
“The Cave,” Feras Fayyad
“The Edge of Democracy,” Petra Costa
“For Sama,” Waad Al-Kateab, Edward Watts
“Honeyland,” Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov

Predicted Winner: “American Factory,” Julia Rieichert, Steven Bognar

Sadly, I have slacked on my documentary watching this past year. So here I am mostly going on general consensus. The Obama-produced Netflix documentary seems to have the most momentum here, especially since the widely considered favorite “Apollo 11” wasn’t even nominated. So expect it to be the big winner tonight.

Best Cinematography

Nominees:

“The Irishman,” Rodrigo Prieto
“Joker,” Lawrence Sher
“The Lighthouse,” Jarin Blaschke
“1917,” Roger Deakins
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Robert Richardson

Predicted Winner: “1917,” Roger Deakins

The first of my predicted technical wins for “1917” is arguably the most deserving of the bunch. Filmed in one take, the film is occasionally breathtaking, not surprising that the great Deakins is behind it. So after decades of not winning, it seems likely that he win his second Academy Award in just a few years. I don’t really see another outcome.

Best Film Editing

Nominees:

“Ford v Ferrari,” Michael McCusker, Andrew Buckland
“The Irishman,” Thelma Schoonmaker
“Jojo Rabbit,” Tom Eagles
“Joker,” Jeff Groth
“Parasite,” Jinmo Yang

Predicted Winner: “Ford v Ferrari,” Michael McCusker, Andrew Buckland

One of the only potential wins for the car racing movie, and probably the most deserving of potential awards, “Ford v Ferrari” would be nothing without a precise editing style, bringing you right into the car alongside the actors. There are arguably more deserving candidates here, such as “Parasite” or the 3+ hour “The Irishman,” but “Ford v Ferrari” seems like the safe bet.

Best Production Design

Nominees:

“The Irishman,” Bob Shaw and Regina Graves
“Jojo Rabbit,” Ra Vincent and Nora Sopkova
“1917,” Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh
“Parasite,” Lee Ha-Jun and Cho Won Woo, Han Ga Ram, and Cho Hee

Predicted Winner: “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh

“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” painstakingly recreates 1960’s Hollywood, in such a way that I think the Academy would most appreciate. “1917” might be a likely winner here, but as impressive as the setup for the one-shot movie is, I think the Academy (and myself) much prefer the work and dedication that comes to a period piece like “Hollywood.”

Best Costume Design

Nominees:

”The Irishman,” Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson
“Jojo Rabbit,” Mayes C. Rubeo
“Joker,” Mark Bridges
“Little Women,” Jacqueline Durran
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Arianne Phillips

Predicted Winner: “Little Women,” Jacqueline Durran

Speaking of period pieces, the Academy loves movies like “Little Women.” The elaborate dresses of 19th Century New England where the movie takes place can be prominently seen throughout the movie. There may be other movies that take care with their costume choices, but “Little Women” is far above them here.

Best Original Score

Nominees:

“Joker,” Hildur Guðnadóttir
“Little Women,” Alexandre Desplat
“Marriage Story,” Randy Newman
“1917,” Thomas Newman
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker,” John Williams

Predicted Winner: “Joker,” Hildur Guðnadóttir

Hildur Guðnadóttir’s score for “Joker” is another one that has been cleaning up this award season. The eerie, entrancing score is arguably the movie’s strongest attribute, and although I would’ve loved to see John Williams get an award for his final Star Wars movie, I think it likely that Guðnadóttir will win here.

Best Original Song

Nominees: 

“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” “Toy Story 4”
“I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” “Rocketman”
“I’m Standing With You,” “Breakthrough”
“Into the Unknown,” “Frozen 2”
“Stand Up,” “Harriet”

Predicted Winner: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” “Rocketman”

A somewhat tough category, this award benefits greatly from the song here being written by the legendary Elton John, which was written specifically for the movie. It’s a worthy win if it does happen, for a movie that was somewhat overlooked at award ceremonies in my opinion. But here’s hoping that both Elton and Bernie Taupin win their first collaborative Oscar for the song.

Best Visual Effects

Nominees:

“Avengers Endgame”
“The Irishman”
“1917”
“The Lion King”
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”

Predicted Winner: “1917″

Another technical award for “1917.” I will admit that the effects in the movie are impressive, especially given its one-shot aspect. So the Academy seems likely to justify that effort with an Oscar.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Nominees:

“Bombshell”
“Joker”
“Judy”
“Maleficent: Mistress of Evil”
“1917”

Predicted Winner: “Bombshell’

A movie whose success largely depended on its ability to emulate the real-life people it is portraying, “Bombshell” delivers. Just look at the above photo as an example. Both the women and especially John Lithgow look almost exactly like their counterparts, so that seems enough to warrant a win here.

Best Sound Mixing

Nominees:

“Ad Astra”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“Joker”
“1917”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Predicted Winner: “1917”

Yet another for “1917,” a film whose purpose is bringing you right amongst the action, and which at least succeeds on that front. None of the other nominees here, with the possible exception of “Ford v Ferrari” or outlier “Ad Astra” come close.

Best Sound Editing

Nominees:

“Ford v Ferrari,” Don Sylvester
“Joker,” Alan Robert Murray
“1917,” Oliver Tarney, Rachel Tate
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Wylie Stateman
“Star Wars: The Rise of SkyWalker,” Matthew Wood, David Acord

Predicted Winner: “Ford v Ferrari,” Don Sylvester

One that could conceivably go to either “Ford v Ferrari” or “1917.” Yet I chose “Ford v Ferrari” due to the intensity of the sound in that film. Though this and the preceding category are typically the same, I think this is one, like editing, where the car racing biopic could prevail.

Best Live Action Short Film

Nominees:

“Brotherhood,” Meryam Joobeur
“Nefta Football Club,” Yves Piat
“The Neighbors’ Window,” Marshall Curry
“Saria,” Bryan Buckley
“A Sister,” Delphine Girard

Predicted Winner: “The Neighbors’ Window,” Marshall Curry

The next few categories, with a couple exceptions, are not some that I know much about. But there seems to be a lot of momentum for “The Neighbors’ Window,” so I think a win is likely here.

Best Animated Short Film

Nominees:

“Dcera,” Daria Kashcheeva
“Hair Love,” Matthew A. Cherry
“Kitbull,” Rosana Sullivan
“Memorable,” Bruno Collet
“Sister,” Siqi Song

Predicted Winner: “Hair Love,” Matthew A. Cherry

This is one where I am notably biased, as I recently saw “Hair Love” and adored it. But there seems to be enough momentum behind it as well, even if “Kitbull” is also a potential option here.

Best Documentary – Short Subject

Nominees:

“In the Absence,” Yi Seung-Jun and Gary Byung-Seok Kam
“Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone,” Carol Dysinger
“Life Overtakes Me,” Kristine Samuelson and John Haptas
“St. Louis Superman,” Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan
“Walk Run Cha-Cha,” Laura Nix

Predicted Winner: “Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone,” Carol Dysinger

Another I don’t know much about, but the consensus seems to be with this short documentary as the likely winner.

So, without about a minute to spare before the award show starts (yeah, cutting it close this year), that about sums up my final award predictions. Hopefully I’ll do fairly well despite not following the award shows too closely this year. Tune in tonight to find out!