Welp, there goes another year. And what a year it has been, huh? I never thought when I was writing these predictions last year that things could get quite as crazy as they did, and not too long after Oscar night either. But now, more than a year later, not only is the world still not back to normal, but movies are still very much in an unusual predicament as well. Streaming has become the new normal, including for the release of a lot of the nominees for this year’s Academy Awards.
All things considered, streaming is still better than nothing, and some genuinely great movies still got released within the last year. For this year’s Academy Award predictions, I am admittedly not as up to date as I traditionally have been, as a result of all of the above. But, as always, I will try my best. And remember, these are just my predictions for the top wins, not necessarily what I would personally pick.
Best Picture
Nominees:
“The Father
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Mank”
“Minari”
“Nomadland”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7″
Predicted Winner: “Nomadland”
For once, as opposed to how it has been for the last several years, it appears that the Best Picture winner is pretty much set. From director Chloé Zhao, it has already won a slew of awards, including the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, Director’s Guild, and more, and it would honestly be shocking if it didn’t win the biggest award of the night. Though it’s not my personal favorite (that would go to either “Minari” or “Sound of Metal”), it is nonetheless a very deserving movie from one of the most promising directors of recent years.
Best Director
Nominees:
Thomas Vinterverg, “Another Round”
David Fincher “Mank”
Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”
Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”
Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”
Predicted Winner: Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”
Another for Zhao and “Nomadland.” As mentioned, Zhao has been picking up a lot of awards for her movie, which stars Frances McDormand as a nomad who travels the country looking for work, living out of her car. It seemed to capture a very unique perspective of America, and as a result it struck a lot of viewers and critics who have seen it. Zhao has already won the DGA and a whole bunch of other awards, so I expect her to win tonight as well. She would shockingly be only the second woman to win the Best Director Oscar after Katheryn Bigelow for “The Hurt Locker.”
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
Gary Oldman, “Mank”
Steven Yeun, “Minari”
Predicted Winner: Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
This year’s award and likely winner will be a very bittersweet one. Boseman, who sadly died last year from colon cancer, gave one of his best performances in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” a film based on a play by August Wilson. As the true heart to the film, he steals the show almost from the start. Amongst the other nominees, Hopkins perhaps comes closest. But I think the Academy will want to give a last fond farewell to a legend that was taken from us far too soon.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Andra Day, “The United States v. Billie Holiday”
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”
Predicted Winner: Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”
This is a tough one to pick. Though Frances McDormand has some momentum for her performance in “Nomadland,” Carey Mulligan has perhaps just as much, with both of them having won awards in other ceremonies in weeks past. My reason for picking Mulligan is because McDormand has already won a fairly recent Academy Award (and her second, at that), and in contrast, Mulligan has not won an Oscar despite several critically acclaimed roles. Her performance in “Promising Young Woman” is often singled out as a highlight of the film. I believe it’s Oscar gold for Mulligan.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami”
Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”
Lakeith Stanfield, “Juda and the Black Messiah”
Predicted Winner: Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Daniel Kaluuya seems to be a certain pick for this award. Having received acclaim for several performances since his breakout in role in “Get Out,” Kaluuya shines once again as Fred Hampton, the leader of the Black Panthers back in the 1960s. His castmate Lakeith also gives a fine performance in the film, but this really is Kaluuya’s award to lose.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”
Olivia Colman, “The Father”
Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”
Yuh-jung Youn, “Minari”
Predicted Winner: Yuh-jung Youn, “Minari”
This is a cateogry with some unique nominees, including, of course, Yuh-jung Youn for her performance as the cool, heartfelt grandmother in the South Korean film “Minari.” As an already acclaimed performer in South Korea and across Asia, this would be a nice recognition the actress on an international stage. The other potential here is Glenn Close, who is very much overdue for an Oscar, but considering the lack of acclaim overall for “Hillbilly Elegy,” it seems unlikely that she will win here.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
“Judas and the Black Messiah.” Screenplay by Will Berson, Shaka King; Story by Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenny Lucas, Keith Lucas
“Minari,” Lee Isaac Chung
“Promising Young Woman,” Emerald Fennell
“Sound of Metal.” Screenplay by Darius Marder, Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder, Derek Cianfrance
“The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Aaron Sorkin
Predicted Winner: “Promising Young Woman,” Emerald Fennell
This is a potentially uncertain category, with a lot of quality contenders. Lee Isaac’s “Minari” has received almost universal acclaim, and there is also a lot riding behind Sorkin’s “Chicago 7.” However, I believe that “Promising Young Woman,” a unique story about a woman’s revenge on the toxic male world, really has the most momentum behind it here, and therefore has enough to take home the win.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.” Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Nina Pedrad
“The Father,” Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
“Nomadland,” Chloé Zhao
“One Night in Miami,” Kemp Powers
“The White Tiger,” Ramin Bahrani
Predicted Winner: “The Father,” Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
Sadly, the only major nominee I have yet to see, “The Father” is a very acclaimed film from this past year. About the tough subject of dementia, it also has two nominated leading actor performances. It’s for those reasons and more that the Academy will be likely to want to award it in some way, and this seems to be the most likely category for a win out of those for which it was nominated.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
“Onward”
“Over the Moon”
“A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon”
“Soul”
“Wolfwalkers”
Predicted Winner: “Soul”
One of the two Disney films in the list, “Soul” is one of their most acclaimed recent animated movies. With a heartfelt central story about a man attempting to make it into jazz, and just enough weird dreamlike sequences for Pixar, it appears to have just the right ingredients for an Academy win. If only “Wolkwalkers” could sneak in somehow, but wishes don’t always amount to wins.
Best International Feature Film
Nominees:
“Another Round” (Denmark)
“Better Days” (Hong Kong)
“Collective” (Romania)
“The Man Who Sold His Skin” (Tunisia)
“Quo Vadis, Aida?”(Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Predicted Winner: “Another Round” (Denmark)
Surprisingly nominated also in the Best Director category, “Another Round” seems primed for a win here. It has received high critical acclaim over the award season and since its release, so I expect the Academy to follow suit.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
“Collective,” Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
“Crip Camp,” Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
“The Mole Agent,” Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez
“My Octopus Teacher,” Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster
“Time,” Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn
Predicted Winner: “My Octopus Teacher,” Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster
This is one of many categories where I’m mostly going by the chatter online. “My Octopus Teacher” has been receiving many of the awards in other shows thus far, and though “Crip Camp” also has some momentum behind it, I believe “My Octopus Teacher” is primed for the win.
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
“Judas and the Black Messiah,” Sean Bobbitt
“Mank,” Erik Messerschmidt
“News of the World,” Dariusz Wolski
“Nomadland,” Joshua James Richards
“The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Phedon Papamichael
Predicted Winner: “Nomadland,” Joshua James Richards
Another for predicted Best Picture winner “Nomadland.” The movie really deserves it here, though, as the movie’s entire goal is to introduce you to the sweeping landscapes of rural United States. Richards’ cinemtography is amongst the more pivotal and successful aspects of Zhao’s film, and that should seal the win in this category.
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
“The Father,” Yorgos Lamprinos
“Nomadland,” Chloé Zhao
“Promising Young Woman,” Frédéric Thoraval
“Sound of Metal,” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
“The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Alan Baumgarten
Predicted Winner: “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Alan Baumgarten
This one is a bit tough to decide. It appears to be between “Sound of Metal,” a film about a drummer losing his sense of hearing, and “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Sorkin’s film about the famous court case. Both are worthy contenders, but I believe the fast-paced editing style of “Chicago 7” really suits the category more. It could also give the Academy a chance to award a movie that likely won’t be awarded much otherwise. It’s a tough pick, but I think it’s likely.
Best Production Design
Nominees:
“The Father.” Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton
“Mank.” Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
“News of the World.” Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
“Tenet.” Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas
Predicted Winner: “Mank.” Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
“Mank” seems like almost a sure thing in this category. With its painstakingly realistic recreation of 1940’s Hollywood in its Golden Age, it’s also exactly what the Academy likes to see: a movie about the process of making movies. It’s also likely the only category where the movie is likely to win, which is all the more reason for voters to pick it here.
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
“Emma,” Alexandra Byrne
“Mank,” Trish Summerville
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Ann Roth
“Mulan,” Bina Daigeler
“Pinocchio,” Massimo Cantini Parrini
Predicted Winner: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Ann Roth
Lavish period pieces tend to get the win here, as they did last year with “Little Women.” Here, it seems most likely to be “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” which brings back to life the jazz age of 1920’s Chicago, with all the spirited fashion of the era.
Best Original Score
Nominees:
“Da 5 Bloods,” Terence Blanchard
“Mank,” Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
“Minari,” Emile Mosseri
“News of the World,” James Newton Howard
“Soul,” Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste
Predicted Winner: “Soul,” Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste
There are some really good picks in this category, notably also that Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are here twice. While I would personally pick the truly delightful score of “Minari,” it appears that “Soul” is the frontrunner here. The plus for “Soul” is not only does it have the otherworldly sounds of the soul dimension from the aforementioned pair, but also the rhytmic jazz from the very talented Jon Batiste. I expect the trio to receive awards come the announcement this evening.
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Fight for You,” (“Judas and the Black Messiah”). Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
“Hear My Voice,” (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”). Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
“Húsavík,” (“Eurovision Song Contest”). Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
“Io Si (Seen),” (“The Life Ahead”). Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
“Speak Now,” (“One Night in Miami”). Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
Predicted Winner: “Speak Now,” (“One Night in Miami”). Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
This one is a bit difficult to decipher. “Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami” may be the frontrunner, but there is momentum behind both “Io Si (Seen)” and even “Húsavík,” the climactic song from the otherwise rather silly “Eurovision.” I think the serious nature and the power of the track from “One Night in Miami” will allow it to pull ahead of the others, though, enough to seal a win.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
“Love and Monsters”
“The Midnight Sky”
“Mulan”
“The One and Only Ivan”
“Tenet”
Predicted Winner: “Tenet”
Though it deservedly hasn’t received much acclaim for its very confusing screenplay, “Tenet” really does deserve the recognition for its impressive visual effects, in which action scenes happen simultaneously forwards and backwards. It is a very interesting visual treat, even if much of the film surrounding this doesn’t make much sense. But a deserved win all the same for Nolan’s latest.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Nominees:
“Emma”
“Hillbilly Elegy”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Mank”
“Pinocchio”
Predicted Winner: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
This is another category that tends to go to period pieces. And here it seems like another likely win “Ma Rainey’s Back Bottom.” Just look at the hairstyles of the jazz band for one, especially Viola Davis. Truly wonderful work there, and enough to earn Academy recognition.
Best Sound
Nominees:
“Greyhound”
“Mank”
“News of the World”
“Soul”
“Sound of Metal”
Predicted Winner: “Sound of Metal”
Here, the Academy decided to combine two categories, that of Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, two distinct categories that are often confused and often the same movie ends up winning both anyways. So here, for that new category of sound, it doesn’t seem likely that anything can beat “Sound of Metal,” a movie that is set from the perspective of a man slowly losing his sense of hearing, and using unique microphone sound effects to show this. You really feel the depth of Riz Ahmed’s character’s plight through the movies use of sound, and for that reason the movie is likely to win this award.
Best Live Action Short Film
Nominees:
“Feeling Through”
“The Letter Room”
“The Present”
“Two Distant Strangers”
“White Eye”
Predicted Winner: “Two Distant Strangers”
For this category, as with the two that follow, I have yet to see the nomineees, so I am mostly going with the momentum and consensus as far as which film is likely to win. Here, the acclaim seems to be with “Two Distant Strangers,” a short about a black man’s death at the hands of a police officer. It’s a film that is sure to hit hard, especially when looking at just the last few weeks.
Best Animated Short Film
Nominees:
“Burrow”
“Genius Loci”
“If Anything Happens I Love You”
“Opera”
“Yes-People”
Predicted Winner: “If Anything Happens I Love You”
Here, the winner is often to the latest Disney/Pixar short, which in this case would be “Burrow.” In this case, though, “If Anything Happens I Love You” seems to be another short that deals with prominent current social issues. So it seems likely that it has the momentum behind it for the win.
Best Documentary – Short Subject
Nominees:
“Colette,” Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard
“A Concerto Is a Conversation,” Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
“Do Not Split,” Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook
“Hunger Ward,” Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman
“A Love Song for Latasha,” Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan
Predicted Winner: “A Love Song for Latasha,” Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan
Another one that I sadly don’t know much about it, but the acclaim seems to be for “A Love Song for Latasha,” another short about the unfortunate killing of a young black woman.
Well that about concludes my predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. All things considered this year, this ceremony is sure to be an interesting one, potentially full of historic wins for women and people of color. Be sure to tune in if you get a chance, and enjoy the show!